Chinese calculations on Taiwan affected by Ukraine conflict, says US CIA director William Burns
- William
Burns said: ‘The Chinese leadership is looking very carefully … at the
costs and consequences of effort to use force to gain control over
Taiwan’
- Burns
said the US believed China was unsettled by the reputational damage of
being associated with the ‘brutishness’ of Vladimir Putin’s military
action
8 May, 2022
US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director William Burns said on Saturday that China is closely monitoring Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and that it is affecting Chinese leaders’ calculations over Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province to be reunified with the mainland.
Burns, speaking at a Financial Times event in Washington, said the Chinese government had been struck by Ukraine’s fierce resistance to Russia’s invasion and by the economic costs Russia is bearing.
“I think the Chinese leadership is looking very carefully at all this – at the costs and consequences of any effort to use force to gain control over Taiwan,” Burns said.
He cautioned, however, that it would not shift Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s long-term goals over Taiwan.
“I don’t for a minute think that this has eroded Xi’s determination over time to gain control over Taiwan,” said Burns. “But I think it’s something that’s affecting their calculation about how and when they go about doing that.”
China has refused to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine and has criticised Western sanctions on Moscow.
Beijing and Moscow declared a “no-limits” strategic partnership several weeks before the February 24 invasion, and have been forging closer energy and security ties in recent years to push back on the United States and the West.
But Burns said the US believed China was unsettled by the reputational damage of being associated with the “brutishness” of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military action.
“I think what the bitter experience, in many ways, of Putin’s Russia in Ukraine over the last 10 or 11 weeks has done is demonstrate that that friendship actually does have some limits,” Burns said.
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China tells US it will not be scared off by sanctions over Taiwan
- Foreign vice-minister Le Yucheng tells forum that ‘unimaginable consequences’ will result if Washington pushes the issue
- Le also denies that China had advance knowledge of or supported the invasion of Ukraine and blames America for fuelling conflict
7 May, 2022
The United States will face “unimaginable consequences” if it plays the Taiwan card and Beijing will not be intimidated by sanctions like those on Russia, a Chinese foreign vice-minister has said.
Le Yucheng told an online security forum on Friday evening that it was “ridiculous” to blame China for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and accused the US of sacrificing Ukraine for its own geopolitical interests.
China has been criticised for not condemning Russia’s invasion, and the US and its allies have expressed concern over the security of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province be to reunified with the mainland – by force if necessary.
In response to American warnings that China would face similar sanctions to those placed on Russia if it attacked Taiwan, Le said “China must be unified, and will be unified”, and sanctions and isolation “could absolutely not scare China”.
“What kind of storms haven’t we weathered in the more than 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China?” he said, adding that in the past few years the US had already taken coercive measures – such as tariffs, reducing cooperation, arresting people on espionage charges – but was not able to break China.
“Not only has China not collapsed, but we are still thriving with each passing day. What else do we have to fear?”
Le also told the event, organised by the China Public Diplomacy Association and Renmin University, that Taiwan was an internal affair and must not be compared to Ukraine, saying “some people emphasise respect for a country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity when talking about Ukraine, but blatantly step on the red line of ‘one China’ and support Taiwan independence”.
“Recently, the United States has been flexing its muscles at the door of China, putting up together various anti-China circles, and even making a big fuss about the Taiwan issue to test the red line,” he said.
“Isn’t this a version of Nato’s eastward expansion in the Asia-Pacific region? If it is allowed to go on, the consequences will be unimaginable and will eventually push the Asia-Pacific into a fire pit.”
Defending Beijing’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine War, Le said China was “not a party to the Ukraine issue, let alone a perpetrator”.
Le said that it was a distortion to interpret the line “there is no forbidden zone for cooperation” in a China-Russia joint statement issued just before the war as proof China knew of Russia’s plans beforehand and supported it.
“That is just a normal statement … In fact, we talk about friendship with all countries, and we never set limits on cooperation with anyone, nor do we need to,” he said.
He also accused the US of failing Europe, adding: “Obviously, what they care about is not peace talks to end the war, not the lives of the Ukrainian people, but to use Ukraine as consumables and cannon fodder to bring down Russia, and use the lives of Ukrainians to satisfy their own great power ambitions and achieve their own geostrategic goals.
“By sacrificing Ukraine, they are weakening Russia, controlling Europe, and continuing hegemony, what a multi-benefit deal. No wonder they are so happy with it.”
Le also said sanctions undermined the international economy and ultimately destabilised the whole world.
“Affected by [US sanctions], multiple crises such as global food, energy, finance, and supply chains have emerged, and the international political and economic security order is in danger,” he said.
Rift in CCP over Xi’s policies on US, Russia
President, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy
Signs of obvious disagreement inside the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on China’s policy towards the United States and the stance on the war in Ukraine are discernible. With no sign of the war ending, concern among Chinese communist cadres about the high possibility of the US imposing sanctions against China is mounting. Disregarding that Chinese President Xi Jinping unequivocally backed Russian President Putin at their summit on February 4, Chinese cadres have risked possible punishment and, since the end of February, posted criticisms on popular Chinese social media outlets.
Intriguing in this backdrop is the publication, after an inexplicable delay, on April 30 by the official Xinhua news agency of its interview with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba! In the interview, Kubela argues his case against Russia, calls the war detrimental to China’s BRI, and proposes that China could be a guarantor of its future security. No English version has yet been noticed.
These six months before the crucial 20th party congress, where Xi intends to secure a third term at the helm, are vital for him. Xi’s opponents could seize the opportunity offered by the growing apprehension of US sanctions, which have the potential to directly adversely impact nearly 300 million Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members. The other factors adding to popular dissatisfaction are the rising living cost, high unemployment, slowing economy and acute distress caused to citizens by the “zero Covid” policy implemented under Xi’s instructions. More than 340 million people in the regions that contribute to about 35 per cent of China’s GDP, including Beijing, have been affected by Covid-related lockdowns. The breakdown in logistics has accentuated distress and impacted China’s exports.
Xi now appears to have decided to counter this criticism. The head of the People’s Daily, Sichuan branch, Lin Zhibo, on April 24 posted a lengthy 6,455-character article titled ‘The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and our position’ on the widely read Chinese portal Weixin. It is the first detailed justification of China’s support to Putin. While it justifies Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it concedes that the Russian army had made poor progress and attributes this to the underestimation of Ukraine’s strength and Putin receiving only “one-sided information”, which is “unfavourable and even dangerous for strategic decision-making.”
The article is categorical that “Russia’s special military action against Ukraine can be regarded as a prelude to resist US hegemony and build a fair and just new international order,” adding that this highlights “Putin’s respectability and this war”. It assesses that the US would now concentrate on weakening Russia and “strangling China” to “maintain its world hegemony". The article asserts that “Time will prove that Russia’s special military operation is beneficial to China and the world.” It explains that Russia has alleviated the strategic pressure on China, extended China’s “strategic opportunity” and enhanced its “economic and comprehensive influence”.
It lists the benefits to China as: the freeing up of markets in Russia, closer Sino-Russian relations, de-dollarisation and internationalisation of the RMB, US-India relations cooling down with the “possibility of improving Sino-Indian relations”, the weakening of Europe and enhancement of China’s influence among developing countries and “the Ukraine conflict providing China with experience and lessons in resolving the Taiwan issue and how to deal with sanctions.” It claims that “the confidence of “Taiwan independence” forces in the US “are declining.” It dismisses as “wishful thinking” the US ambition of uniting “allies to strangle Russia, and then concentrate its efforts on encircling and suppressing China.”
The article warns that if the Russian army failed to perform, Putin would become ineffective and “pro-American forces will seize Russian power”, which China “absolutely cannot allow”. It asserts that the US strategy is “containing and strangling China, not allowing China to become strong…. We should not have illusions about its malicious intent”. It ends with the exhortation that China “must pay attention to the enemy tactically, study the United States as a real tiger carefully, and prepare for military and all-round struggles” and “launch a great struggle”.
Reinforcing the acute concern of the CCP’s upper echelons, an institute affiliated to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also, for the first time, been noticed publishing an article justifying the war on Ukraine and its potential impact on China. Published on April 29, and captioned ‘Learning to live under the containment of the West — Influence and Enlightenment of the Ukraine War’, the article by Zhang Zhikun, Senior Researcher of Kunlun Policy Research Institute, is very critical of the US.
It asserts that that the international order is actually the result of a “violent, barbaric and bloody colonial expansion of Western countries” and that “in the coming period, the United States and the West will focus on how to oust Putin and create various political ‘revolutionary’ movements in Russia” and undermine Russia’s periphery. Zhang Zhikun asserts that the US strategy “is to weaken Russia and contain China at the same time”. He anticipates that “China’s relations with Western countries will become more precarious, and close economic and trade ties, personnel exchanges, financial ties, etc... may be broken at any time.” Underlining that an “all-round containment’ of China by the “hegemonic bloc” is inevitable, he emphasises that “sanctions and blockades of China may happen at any time.” He exhorts “all patriotic Chinese” to shed illusions about the United States and the West, and eliminate their dependence on Western blocs, including in all key technologies.
That the CCP has chosen to justify its support to Putin and the
Russian invasion of Ukraine two months after the commencement of the war
is significant. It suggests that inner-party opposition has increased.
The justifications have thus far appeared in CCP- and PLA-affiliated
outfits.